The CW orders backdoor "The Vampire Diaries" spin-off pilot

[PhoenixHope]

So, I wasn't entirely sure where to put this, because while it is news it's also relevant to a discussion in another thread. I finally decided that it should be in news.

The CW has decided to move forward with a backdoor pilot for a The Vampire Diaries spinoff that could expand the franchise into two separate series next year. Currently titled The Originals, the backdoor pilot will air as part of the current season of The Vampire Diaries on April 25. The story will center around the original vampire family and stars Joseph Morgan as Klaus and Phoebe Tonkin.
link

So, anyway, basically in another thread I was speculating about the fate of CW shows by the end of the season. Obviously, I don't have ANY insider information, but I would say this news is probably not good news for at least one of the four CW bubble shows (for the record: The Vampire Diaries, Arrow, nor Supernatural are bubble shows - baring a late season ratings drop those three shows will be renewed), because if the CW is testing a spin-off then unless the backdoor pilot is horribly bad or not well received by fans (and even if fans don't respond well it's more likely that the pilot would be retooled before going to series than it would be for the idea to be scrapped entirely). So now it's even more likely that at least two of the following will not be renewed for another season: 90210, Hart of Dixie, Beauty and the Beast, and/or Nikita, and more worry for fans is that if one (or both) of the mid-season entries (The Carrie Diaries and/or Cult) rate well then that means at the very least THREE (probably four) of the current CW bubble shows will be canceled.

Anyway, as I said (and still firmly believe) The Vampire Diaries, Arrow, and Supernatural will be renewed for another season. And two side notes here first that America's Next Top Model has been renewed but also noted that it will become a summer only series, and while Emily Owens, M.D. will air all thirteen episodes ordered and made that will be the end of it. So, basically (assuming, as I do that the three previously mentioned shows will be renewed) that leaves the CW with seven hours to fill next season, and then consider how likely it is The Originals will be ordered to series then that leaves the CW with only six hours left to fill. Now there are options:

I still lean toward Nikita being renewed despite that fact that it has horrible ratings. However, more and more I'm suspecting that Nikitta will end up airing a final season as a summer show, because even for the CW on Friday Nikitas ratings suck ass. Then there's 90210 and the fact that the CW has proven again and again that they LOVE giving their old shows a proper send off, which means it's possibly (maybe even likely) that 90210 will get at least a shortened final season (unless the CW soon announces something regarding that - like just saying that at the end of this season 90210 will end). However, Gossip Girls final season didn't boost its ratings at all, and 90210 only did little better this season than Gossip Girl which might inspire the CW to just end it. So we come to Hart of Dixie the show that was cheap enough to get the renewal last season where as Ringer and The Secret Circle didn't - that's relevant because The Secret Circle actually rated slightly better (most of the time) than Hart of Dixie so it's almost certainly the high cost of making the show that got it canceled. Hart of Dixie is almost insanely stable ratings-wise, but stable though they may be they are also low, AND ordering a third season of Hart of Dixie would almost certainly mean that a fourth season would happen. Finally, there's Beauty and the Beast, which I've heard rumors about this being made at almost Canadian import prices, which means it could be cheap enough to renew as long as its ratings don't fall any further.

As I said I'm leaning toward a renewal but move to summer for Nikita (which means even with a renewal that hour of primetime broadcast season would be open for a new show), and while I was almost ready (before) to say the CW would almost certainly (ratings be damned) give 90210 a short final season I admit that I'm actually starting to wonder if the CW might just let it end at the end of this season - if that's the case news of that will probably break soon, so the longer there is no news the more likely it is that 90210 will get a short final season. If the rumors I've heard are true then it's likely Beauty and the Beast will score a renewal (unless ratings tank when the show returns, which happened last season with The Secret Circle) and that does admittedly limit Hart of Dixie's chances. On the other hand, if those rumors aren't true then Beauty and the Beast will most likely get the ax while Hart of Dixie sneaks through again.

However, since there's no ratings data yet for The Carries Diaries and Cult that means everything is more in the air than usual, because if one does well then at least two of the previously mentioned shows would need to be canceled/moved to summer, and if both do well then that means three of the above would need to be canceled/moved to summer. Meaning if both do well it's likely that 90210, Hart of Dixie, AND Beauty and the Beast would be canceled. Because remember the CW typically orders two thru four new shows a season, so even on the low side adding two shows to the above renewals and one likely pick-up fills eight hours of the CW schedule leaving them only two left to fill and if the mid-season entries rate well that fills those slots. However, even still a short final season of 90210 could still be ordered and left to debut in the spring to cover the CW if one of their new shows pulls an Emily Owens, M.D.. And I do think at least one of the potential three new shows the CW picks up would be another mid-season entry again to cover fall failures. Basically, I'm just saying that if you connect all the dots things aren't exactly looking good for Hart of Dixie and Beauty and the Beast, and aren't exactly looking sunny for 90210 nor Nikita.

[RJDiogenes]

I'm sure The Originals will be approved to go to series. That's pretty interesting. With Klaus and his entourage gone from Vampire Diaries, I wonder where the storyline will go. Hmm.

I have a feeling Beauty and the Beast will survive another year. But I wonder if CBS is planning to put their new Twilight Zone series on CBS or the CW-- or market it to cable.

[PhoenixHope]

I'm sure The Originals will be approved to go to series. That's pretty interesting. With Klaus and his entourage gone from Vampire Diaries, I wonder where the storyline will go. Hmm.

I'm fairly sure of that myself (unless, as I said, the backdoor pilot is horrible or the fans have an extremely and unrelenting negative reaction to it, and even then I suspect it would be retooled and still given a greenlight). However, something I thought I pointed out in the above post but rereading realized that I hadn't - back before The Vampire Diaries was picked up to series there was a Gossip Girl spin-off in contention (a prequel) that apparently was so bad (or little responded to) that The Vampire Diaries was picked up to series instead, so just because something is a spin-off of a popular show (which Gossip Girl was back then) doesn't automatically mean it will get the greenlight, because remember if there was one show that Dawn-O loved above all others it was Gossip Girl, so when you think about it it's kind of amazing that The Vampire Diaries was picked up to series to begin with.

ANYWAY, an UPDATE - Mark-P intentionally (or not) puts Supernatural in with the bubble shows, and made me consider something I hadn't really thought of.
(Okay, it was the writer of the previous article that did that (probably for page views) because here's a more detailed article, which quotes Mark-P as saying prospects for a nineth season of Supernatural are high, but still the previous article did make me think of something in regards to older shows, which Supernatural is.)

While Supernatural is the third highest rated show on the CW (and has been for three years running) it's also getting old - meaning by default it's getting more more expensive (just a fact of life the older a show gets the more expensive it becomes), and that little fact has killed a great many show over the years that had good/decent ratings but not high enough to justify their growing expense. However, Supernatural has been syndicated (meaning it also makes outside money), so I'm still reasonably certain Supernatural will be renewed.

BUT in almost the same breath that the article makes me wonder at least a little about Supernatural the article quotes Mark-P as saying:

* No decisions have been made on renewals for Nikita, 90210 and Hart of Dixie. But Pedowitz declared that he is “a big believer in giving fans a very satisfactory conclusion,” should any of the network’s long-running series get axed. “It’s something that we as a television industry need to do.”

Which probably means 90210 will get a short final season, and makes me think even if Supernaturals ratings stumbled after its mid-season return that it would also at least get a shortened final season. But right now I think season nine would/will be a full season with ten maybe being the short half season.

Still my speculation has been slightly revised:

RENEWED (for another season)

The Vampire Diaries (full season renewal)
Arrow (full season renewal)
Supernatural (full season renewal)
90210 (probably a shortened final season renewal)
America's Next Top Model (all ready officially renewed)

BUBBLE (could go either way)

Hart of Dixie
Beauty and the Beast
Nikita

No Speculation (yet)

The Carrie Diaries (positive pilot buzz)
Cult (negative pilot buzz)
(While I noted the pilot buzz, I should point out that in most cases the buzz a pilot does or does not have doesn't seem to bring (or not) ratings. I mostly just noted because I like notes. *grin*)

CANCELED

Emily Owens, M.D.

~~~~~

Basically, all the new information changes is the bubble list - turning four shows into three shows, which means the race between the remaining three is tighter now, and fans of the remaining bubble three should probably be hoping (but shouldn't, because the CW needs more hits) that both The Carrie Diaries and Cult flop, because if both of those do well then that could mean only ONE of the bubble shows would be renewed, and if it comes down to only one my money's on Hart of Dixie, but that's maybe because Mark-P compared Beauty and the Beast to The Secret Circle and considering what happened to The Secret Circle that should probably make fans of Beauty and the Beast at least a little bit nervous.

[RJDiogenes]

Wow, I thought they had already decided that Supernatural would go ten seasons. It probably will, though, like you said, even if season ten is a short one. I wonder if they'll try to develop a Supernatural spin-off, too.

[PhoenixHope]

Wow, I thought they had already decided that Supernatural would go ten seasons.

Not quite (though it may be unofficially) the news simply was that Jensen and Jared signed on to do through season ten NOT that the CW had actually renewed the show through season ten.

Now granted unless the ratings for Supernatural collapse it probably will go through season ten, but that's not a sure thing yet.

I wonder if they'll try to develop a Supernatural spin-off, too.

It seems doubtful - I can't find the link at the moment, but Mark-P was asked about this and basically insulted the character of Cass. Okay, not really, basically he just said Supernatural unlike The Vampire Diaries did not have a wealth of secondary characters which could spawn a spin off.

Okay, so I found the link, and hey I was somewhat close:

With the recent announcement of a "Vampire Diaries" spinoff backdoor pilot, there have been some questions from fans as to whether The CW would consider a potential "Supernatural" spin-off based on Castiel (Misha Collins). Pedowitz explained that "Supernatural" may not be the best launchpad for another series.

"You look at [whether the] audience is engaged. You look at that universe -- can it actually launch something? 'Supernatural' if you decide to do a spin-off off of that, you [question] does it work? Does it incubate the show really well?" Pedowitz explains. "We have a lot of characters on 'Vampire Diaries,' and they're all rich, rich characters. Klaus and the Original family gives us an opportunity to do something where we can get more bang for the buck, so to speak."

http://blog.zap2it.com/frominsidethebox ... n-off.html

Which, yeah, if you look at it a certain way it does kinda insult Cass, but not as much as some fans around the net are insisting. Basically, I think he's just saying that when it comes to Supernatural most viewers are invested in Dean and Sam and Dean and Sam can't be on a spin off, because having Dean and Sam would make it not a spin off.

And to be honest the only viable spin-off even I see for Supernatural would be a Bobby/Rufus spin-off, but now both of them is dead, and while they could do a young Bobby/young Rufus spin-off that would probably (at the end of the day) feel like Dean/Sam light.

[RJDiogenes]

I love Cass, but I don't think he'd be the best bet for a spin-off. If they were going to do a Supernatural spin-off, they'd have to create some brand-new characters and introduce them this year. I agree that no existing characters-- most of whom are dead now, anyway-- could support a series.

[PhoenixHope]

Weeeeeell, so much for positive buzz (which as I all ready mentioned doesn't generally make a difference) because it doesn't look like The Carries Diaries will be bumping a bubble show off the schedule:

The Carrie Diaries (Series Premiere)
- 1.61 million viewers
- 0.6/2 A18-49

The Carries Diaries (First Encore)
- 0.90 million viewers
- 0.4/1 A18-49

Though since (from what I understand) The Carries Diaries will encore again later this week after The Vampire Diaries it might be interesting to see if The Vampire Diaries viewers are enticed or if this show will go the way most low-starting shows go - down and dead.

[RJDiogenes]

But aren't those ratings good for the CW? Looking at the other thread, this is better than Vampire Diaries and Arrow.

[PhoenixHope]

Not be a smart ass, but in what reality is a 0.6 better than a 1.0 (the lowest Arrows went to date) and a 1.1 (the lowest The Vampire Diaries has gone to date).

Oh, wait, I confused you by posting overall viewer numbers, didn't I? Well, The Vampire Diaries usually gets 2.0 million or more viewers and Arrow typically gets over 3.0 million viewers.

Now granted that 0.6 puts The Carrie Diaries in the middle of the CW pack (lower end though), BUT shows typically drop from their premiere numbers (i.e. the numbers for a Series Premiere) are as a general rule the best numbers a show will ever have and it's all downhill from that. So with that start The Carrie Diaries cannot afford to lose one single viewer.

[RJDiogenes]

Yup, that's exactly what happened. I was looking at the 1.61. Oh, well.

Is The Carrie Diaries a prequel to Sex And The City, by any chance?

[PhoenixHope]

Is The Carrie Diaries a prequel to Sex And The City, by any chance?

Yeah, except from what I understand there's some changes been made, but I never watched Sex and the City and so I'd have no idea what.

Anyway...

The Vampire Diaries
- 2.95 million viewers
- 1.4/4 A18-49

The Carrie Diaries (Second Encore)
- 1.14 million viewers
- 0.4/1 A18-49

So, fairly decent rerun numbers, but the new episode on Monday will tell the tale on whether or not The Carrie Diaries will have enough actual viewers to keep it alive.

[RJDiogenes]

Yeah, I noticed they used "Melt With You," one of my favorite 80s songs, as the intro. Then the commercials used other 80s songs. I never watched Sex And The City, either, but I was somehow able to make the Carrie connection. I suppose one change would be a lack of nudity.

So those numbers aren't bad for the CW, I think, if they keep up. The show may survive. I suppose, like Secret Circle, it partly depends on how expensive it is.

[PhoenixHope]

Okay so I have no idea why I didn't respond to this sooner, but part of the problem The Carrie Diaries has cost-wise is that (if I'm understanding correctly) it's set in the 1980's and that can run up some costs to make and keep everything looking like the time period. Though it is probably still cheaper than The Secret Circle, but the question is how much cheaper? - and that's info us plebs on the outside generally never see.

Anyway, I came back to this thread because I'm thinking about updating my "forecast" a bit, because I'm now starting to doubt two things - one, that 90210 will get a short final season, because ratings since the return have been (to put it kindly) not good. Two, that Nikita may in fact score an in-season renewal, because she's no longer the lowest rated CW show.
(Though, to be fair, she's only beating the dead show walking Emily Owens, M.D. and the maybe-probably-should-be-but-not-quite-dead-show-walking 90210, and has moved ahead of the now finished final season of Gossip Girl, but that's still somewhat impressive for a Friday show.
Of course, from what I've heard 90210 is almost finished actually filming for the season, so it might be hard to twist whatever they have into a series ending, though the CW could (maybe) just order one or two more episodes and still end it this season - or I suppose (somewhat radical idea) they could basically just order two episodes for next season and call it a made for TV movie to end the show, though somehow I doubt they'll do either one.
My guess is still that they'll either cancel it outright or renew it outright for a short (10-13 episodes) final season.)

So a mini-tenative update:
(Not official, as though any of my guesses are official)

OFFICIALLY RENEWED:

America's Next Top Model

RENEWED:

The Vampire Diaries
Arrow
Supernatural
Nikita *
Hart of Dixie *
Beauty and the Beast *

BUBBLE:

The Carrie Diaries *
90210
Cult *

OFFICIALLY CANCELED:

Emily Owens, M.D.

~

* Nikita:
While I've always been relatively certain of a renewal, before I was not certain it would be an in-season renewal, but now I'm leaning toward an in-season renewal.

* Hart of Dixie:
Again while I've been pretty set in my belief that this one would be renewed there is still the issue of a late season drop, but if that doesn't happen this one is probably golden.

*Beauty and the Beast:
I was certain early on that this one would be one and done, but it's holding up a little better than I expected. Of course, as with The Secret Circle last season a late season ratings drop could still happen and if so B&tB could still end up being one and done.

*The Carrie Diaries:
While this one didn't debut as well as the CW was no doubt hoping so far it's holding at a 0.5 and if that keeps up it could still score a half-season renewal, or depending on how the CW feels about their potential pilots, could score a full season renewal, unless it starts dropping in the ratings.

* Cult:
Simply on the bubble because it hasn't aired yet. So again I won't call anything for it until it's aired at least one episode, though if it premiered well I might even wait for one or two more airings before I call anything.

So that's my thoughts right now, though by the middle of Feburary I'll probably stop "guessing" (though it would still be guessing, just a guessing that tightens up to more certain) and make my final predictions, which would probably hold unless daylight savings time (which would happen AFTER Feb.) leads to a bold drop for something after that.

And from what I understand the CW has ordered eight scripts to pilot. Usually they only order six and then of those six pick up two or three. So having eight might mean they are looking to pick up four or five new shows, and if they are then that doesn't bode well for the bubble.

So with what I'm almost positive will be renewed plus one sure new series pick-up that would have seven of the ten hours filled, which means they only need three, and if Cult does better than The Carrie Diaries (which would most likely make it a sure renewal) then the CW would only have two hours left to fill which would almost certainly be given to new shows rather than the lower rated oldies.

[PhoenixHope]

Oops - forgot to link to the news/descriptions of the CWs ordered to pilot scripts: Pilots in contention:

The contenders are:

1. The Originals (The Vampire Diaries spin-off)
2. The Selection (Hunger Games "knock-off")
3. The Tomorrow People (adaptation of a cult British 1970s series)
4. The Hundred (a Revolution clone, but with aliens and criminals)
5. Oxygen (District 9 "knock-off")
6. Company Town (military drama written by Sera Gamble)
7. Reign (story of Mary Queen of Scots’ rise to power)
8. Blink (kinda sounds a bit like an Awake knock-off)

And, yes, these are in the order I think they could be picked up, though obviously since the pilots aren't in/finished yet there's no way to be certain - all of the above are in contention right now.

[RJDiogenes]

The Selection is probably a strong contender, since it appeals to the CW demographic. Some of those other ones seem like odd choices.

[PhoenixHope]

I agree that The Originals and The Selection are early favorites, BUT The Selection was rejected last season and retooled for another try. And best I can recall there was one potential (several seasons ago) that went through roughly the same process The Selection is and that one ended up never making it to air, and I admit (even though I can't remember it now) I would've classed that one as an early favorite.

Mostly I lined 'em the way I did because the CW tends to favor "remakes" of successful movies, books, shows over other things, and that more than anything gives The Selection a real shot unless the pilot comes in very bad.

Though looking now I wonder if I should've put Reign in last position, because period dramas on broadcast have recently on the whole flopped - The Playboy Club, Pan Am, and Vegas, and probably some others I'm not recalling at the moment. But for some reason I just think it looks a bit more interesting than Blink.

Finally, though, I suppose it's worth noting that The Tomorrow People was the last script ordered to pilot, which may mean nothing but could indicate that it wasn't as favored as others.

And, of course, while the CW has eight pilots to choose from where they usually only have six that still doesn't mean they have to pick up more (and in reality unless they cancel more than I think they will they wouldn't exactly need more), because when I think about it for the current season they actually picked up five and merely held two back for mid-season which they could do again this time around. So I'm reasonably certain the CW will pick up at least five and I'm betting on at least six getting the green-light. Why? Well, this season they picked up five - three for fall and then two for mid-season and they still ended up with a rerun hour this season. So, I figure for the coming season they'll pick up at least three for fall and then three for mid-season in an effort to avoid having a rerun hour again next season.

So if I'm right that the CW will renew at least six of their current shows that leaves four slots open for either more renewals or new shows to premiere, which isn't that many slots. Because I would guess that they'll at least green-light three new shows for fall (but they could go for four), which would only leave one other slot open. So, either way you look at it the bubble race is tight this season so any show that has a late season ratings drop could find itself axed.

[PhoenixHope]

Well, if this isn't a Hart of Dixie-like fluke (last season for one episode HoD hit a 0.9 A18-49, and then proceeded to never rise that high again) then I might have to alter my predictions:

2-4-13
The Carries Diaries
(Episode Four)
- 1.51 million viewers
- 0.7/2 A18-49

If it keeps that up then the CWs bubble watch gets WAY more interesting, because (for example) since the mid-season return 90210 hasn't managed to rise above a 0.4 (A18-49), which makes it (since mid-season started) the lowest rated show on the CW - not counting the all ready canceled but still airing Emily Owens, M.D. obviously. Yes, even Nikita has managed to get a 0.5 (A18-49) since it's return, though only the once - otherwise it's steady at a 0.4, as well, but to be fair Nikita airs on Friday and 90210 airs on Monday.

Even Hart of Dixie hasn't managed to go above 0.6 (A18-49) since it's return, and its most recent new episode dropped to a 0.5 (A18-49).

And so far Beauty and the Beast is holding fairly steady at a 0.7 (A18-49) since its return (which granted is only two episodes) so if it keeps that up it makes Beauty and the Beast the forth highest rated CW show - meaning if TCD holds at that 0.7 it would certainly be a shoe-in for renewal.

In other news last week's Arrow dropped kinda hard:

1-30-13
Arrow
(Episode Twelve)
- 2.97 million viewers
- 0.9/3 A18-49

Perviously Arrow had not dropped below a 1.0 A18-49 which it had only hit twice before. HOWEVER, even with that drop to a 0.9 Arrow is in no danger of getting canceled - it's just (apparently) not remotely about to unseat The Vampire Diaries as the CWs number one show as some anti-The Vampire Diaries and Arrow fans clearly previously hoped.

[RJDiogenes]

Strange that it experience such a sudden drop, though. Hopefully it won't continue.

[PhoenixHope]

Well, in fairness, a one time episode drop is no more or less important than a one time episode rise.

For example, Arrows drop might just be a fluke and it'll be back to normal in the coming weeks just like The Carrie Diaries series high could be a fluke and it'll be down to a 0.5 again next time. It's when a show rises or drops for more than one episode that ratings trends start forming that can save or damn a show.