CW - Renewal/Cancel predictions: (UPDATED 2-28-13)

[PhoenixHope]

Okay, so I said I'd make a sort of final prediction after Cult premiered (with the option to tweak if ratings change). Now if Cult had premiered well (you know with at least a little room to fall) I'd be holding off on this for another week or two, but sadly Cult flopped out of the gate, so baring a drastic upturn (or an outright shocking Dollhouse/Body of Proof renewal) Cult is certain to be canceled and therefore doesn't affect the fate of other CW shows.

RENEWED (officially):

America's Next Top Model
The Vampire Diaries
Arrow
Supernatural

CANCELED (officially):

Gossip Girl (ended)
Emily Owens, M.D.
90210

CANCELED: (Prediction of will not be renewed)

Cult
90210

BUBBLE: (could go either way)

Bubble Renewed:
Hart of Dixie
Nikita

Bubble (too close to call):
Beauty and the Beast (now leaning toward renewal)
The Carrie Diaries (now leaning toward canceled)

So now to expand on placements:

First 90210 at a 0.4 I could maybe see the CW trying to work out at least a ten to thirteen episode final season (it could air on Friday or in the summer), but slipping to 0.3 and then even lower means the CW would really have trouble justifying a renewal here, especially over another show that is rating better, which at this point is pretty much all of them even the already canceled Emily Owens was rating better than 90210 currently is.

Out of the bubble shows I personally believe Hart of Dixie will be renewed, unless ratings slip, but it does have a proven history of holding pretty steady, so while I have it on the bubble because it is a bubble show I'd lay money on the renewal table. And after moving an hour earlier for mid-season Nikita has shown some ratings life, though the most recent episode dipped, I think Nikita will be renewed for at least a 21 episode season four, and I think Nikita will air in season (not moved to summer), though it is possible that it could be given a mid-season start and then air straight through to season and most likely series end, which would at least open up a prime (or at least better) slot in the fall for a new show.

For me the only true bubble shows at this point are Beauty and the Beast and The Carrie Diaries just like last season when I firmly believe the race came down to Nikita vs The Secret Circle.

And based on what I've already predicted (and what's already been renewed) it is likely at least one of these will be renewed. Though to be perfectly honest it wouldn't surprise me if both was renewed or both canceled - still I'm leaning toward one renewed and one canceled here, but that's more a gut thing, because who knows exactly how many new shows Mark-P will be wanting to start in the fall.

Anyway, I personally think Beauty will be renewed over Carrie, but will admit that this race will most certainly come down to factors other than ratings that we (the lowly public) don't have access to. Such as how much each show cost - going by looks alone I'd say The Carrie Diaries costs more, but Beauty and the Beast is airing after the CWs number one show and completely failing to hold even half of The Vampire Diaries audience, and considering what happened last season with/to The Secret Circle it wouldn't be wise to write that off entirely.

See, as I said, both The Carrie Diaries and Beauty and the Beast are true bubble shows that makes it really hard to call until and unless ratings start telling the tale - meaning one needs to stay more than marginally higher than the other and that's not really happening at the moment. Beauty is higher but only a tenth (i.e. to close to call). Just like last season when The Secret Circle was higher than Nikita but not by enough to call.

psst - No, I won't be doing these for other networks mostly because I have more of an interest in the CW than other networks, but also because for me it's harder to do this with other networks, because other networks have all kinds of reality and I have zero interest in reality shows period, so for now it's just the CW I'm doing this for.

Also and for the record - here's a list of pilots (i.e. potential new shows) the CW is looking at for series pick-ups:

1. The Originals
2. The Selection
3. The Tomorrow People
4. The Hundred
5. Oxygen
6. Company Town
7. Reign
8. Blink

None have been picked up yet, but based on history probably at least five will be (three for fall and two for mid-season), though I could see maybe six picked up this time (four for fall and two for mid-season), but I wouldn't expect more than six to be picked up.

[RJDiogenes]

I wonder if they will want to air The Originals right after Vampire Diaries, or if they will try to use it to anchor another night. If they want it right after VD, that would probably be bad for Beauty & The Beast, because where else could they put it? But what other night would they want to use for Originals, and what would they pair it with?

[PhoenixHope]

Well, the truth is even if The Originals doesn't premiere behind The Vampire Diaries next season there's no way Beauty and the Beast will keep that slot, because it's simply not holding on to enough of The Vampire Diaries audience. Now that doesn't mean it will for sure be canceled just that if it is renewed it will not keep the slot behind The Vampire Diaries that it currently has.

Anyway, the thing I came back to this thread to say is that I know I saw something before about America's Next Top Model becoming a summer show, but recently I'm seeing reliable sites saying that ANTM has not been officially announced as a summer show - so while I'd almost be willing to swear I saw the news that it would become a summer show before I am no longer certain.

And if ANTM stays an in-season show then that does make the Bubble Race tighter.

[RJDiogenes]

I wonder if B&B will be consigned to Fridays.

[PhoenixHope]

Don't hate me because I'm good. *grin*

Here (90210 will not be getting a short final season the current episodes airing will be the last ever episodes of 90210) and here (Cult after two episodes is moved to Fridays making it officially a Dead Show Airing).

Anyway, the first article lists finale dates for all CW shows:

The Carrie Diaries - Monday, April 8 (8:00-9:00 p.m.)
Hart Of Dixie - Tuesday, May 7 (8:00-9:00 p.m.)
90210 (SERIES FINALE) - Monday, May 13 (9:00-10:00 p.m.)
Arrow - Wednesday, May 15 (8:00-9:00 p.m.)
Supernatural - Wednesday, May 15 (9:00-10:00 p.m.)
The Vampire Diaries - Thursday, May 16 (8:00-9:00 p.m.)
Beauty And The Beast - Thursday, May 16 (9:00-10:00 p.m.)
Nikita - Friday, May 17 (8:00-9:00 p.m.)
Cult - Friday, May 24 (9:00-10:00 p.m.)

Two things of note - you might even call them hints:
One: It's not a good sign that they have The Carrie Diaries ending in April - last time they ended a show in April it (Ringer) did not come back.
Two: Cult is not noted as being a series finale - so you could argue that means there's a chance Cult could live to see another season - I say NAY! Because even if Cult kept that 0.3 on Friday that's still not a good rating even on the CW even on a Friday.

So now officially three shows canceled/ending: Gossip Girl, Emily Owens, M.D., and joining that list 90210. One DSA Cult, and another ending way before the seasons end The Carrie Diaries.

So, I'm going out on a little limb and suggesting with current ratings Beauty and the Beast is probably cheap enough to slip through to another season (just like Hart of Dixie last season) where as The Carrie Diaries is not. Let's just hope for Beauty and the Beasts sake it doesn't make a The Secret Circle late season ratings dive, because in that case I could see Beauty and the Beast canceled along with The Carrie Diaries.
(Especially if a renewal for Beauty and the Beast means a move to Friday - if it drops anymore then the CW would probably be better off taking their chances with a new series.)

[RJDiogenes]

Cult seems like a good pairing with Nikita; maybe they will bolster each other's ratings.

In any case, I'm glad that Beauty & The Beast will survive.

[PhoenixHope]

Sadly unlikely since Nikita has fallen again. Right after the mid-season start Nikita was getting 0.4s and even two 0.5s, but the most recent two episodes have fallen back to 0.3s, so it seems Nikita can barely keep itself alive let alone help keep another show (Cult) alive.

What's really sad for me is that I actually liked Cult, but Grimm is FINALLY returning which means on Fridays I'll be unable to keep up with Cult.

[PhoenixHope]

Sooo, I decided to revisit this thread in light of the fact that the CW has now renewed five shows (six if you count ANTM) and I can't help thinking "damn, I'm good!"

I said:

Okay, so I said I'd make a sort of final prediction after Cult premiered (with the option to tweak if ratings change). Now if Cult had premiered well (you know with at least a little room to fall) I'd be holding off on this for another week or two, but sadly Cult flopped out of the gate, so baring a drastic upturn (or an outright shocking Dollhouse/Body of Proof renewal) Cult is certain to be canceled and therefore doesn't affect the fate of other CW shows.

RENEWED (officially):

America's Next Top Model
The Vampire Diaries
Arrow
Supernatural

CANCELED (officially):

Gossip Girl (ended)
Emily Owens, M.D.
90210

CANCELED: (Prediction of will not be renewed)

Cult

BUBBLE: (could go either way)

Bubble Renewed:
Hart of Dixie
Nikita

Bubble (too close to call):
Beauty and the Beast (now leaning toward renewal)
The Carrie Diaries (now leaning toward canceled)

And since even more is settled now than it was then I decided now was as good a time as any to revisit this.

RENEWED (Officially)

The Vampire Diaries
Arrow
Supernatural
Hart of Dixie (CALLED IT!)
Beauty and the Beast (CALLED IT!)

To be fair, I also called the renewals for The Vampire Diaries, Arrow, and Supernatural before those was announced, as well.

CANCELED (Officially)

Gossip Girl (ended, but either way DONE!)
Emily Owens, M.D.
90210
Cult (CALLED IT!)

Also, called Emily Owens, M.D. and 90210 before they was officially canceled. Just noting that for the record, of course.

RENEWAL (prediction)

Nikita

CANCELED (prediction)

The Carrie Diaries

To expand:

Despite recent news/rumors that have opened some doubts I still believe Nikita will get a renewal, and probably for at least 13 episodes (if not a "full" 21), because 13 would at least bring it up to 80 episodes and shows have been syndicated with less than 80, but at this point I have to admit that maybe I should've left Nikita under/on the bubble, because at this point nothing regarding Nikita would truly surprise me. Well, I guess a two season renewal announcement would shock me, but otherwise nothing that the CW would realistically do in regards to Nikita would truly shock/surprise me now.

Also, I do believe the renewal of Beauty and the Beast sealed The Carrie Diaries fate, though I suppose another short season could be possible, but I very seriously doubt that'll happen.

[RJDiogenes]

I think you're right. They'll probably find a way to keep Nikita on the air a bit longer, but I don't think anybody is invested in continuing Carrie Diaries.

[PhoenixHope]

Yeah, in some ways I can't help thinking that despite the fact that The Carrie Diaries ended up airing all the ordered episodes that in some ways it might've been more disappointing to/for the CW than Cult, which they clearly didn't have faith in to begin with.

[PhoenixHope]

So today the CW adds some new shows to go along with the previously picked up The Originals. Here's a re-fresher on which pilots are in contention to be picked up by the CW:

Also and for the record - here's a list of pilots (i.e. potential new shows) the CW is looking at for series pick-ups:

1. The Originals
2. The Selection
3. The Tomorrow People
4. The Hundred
5. Oxygen
6. Company Town
7. Reign
8. Blink

None have been picked up yet, but based on history probably at least five will be (three for fall and two for mid-season), though I could see maybe six picked up this time (four for fall and two for mid-season), but I wouldn't expect more than six to be picked up.

And here's what's officially been picked up so far:

The Originals
The Tomorrow People
The Hundred
Reign
Oxygen

Supposedly Company Town and Blink have officially been passed on (but I can't find official confirmation of that) and The Selection could maybe still be picked up.

[RJDiogenes]

The Tomorrow People might be interesting.

[PhoenixHope]

Well, I was wrong - I said it was unlikely that both Beauty and the Beast and The Carrie Diaries would be renewed, but yet both of them have been.

So, I believe this is probably the final tally when it comes to the CW:

RENEWED:

America's Next Top Model (could be a summer run only)
The Vampire Diaries (22/23 episodes)
Arrow (22/23 episodes)
Supernatural (22/23 episodes)
Hart of Dixie (22 episodes)
Beauty and the Beast (13-22 episodes)
Nikita (reportedly only 6-10 episodes)
The Carrie Diaries (reportedly 13 episodes)

CANCELED:

Gossip Girl
Emily Owens, M.D.
90210
Cult

PICKED UP:

The Originals
The Tomorrow People
The Hundred
Reign
Oxygen (which may be called from now on Star-Crossed)

It looks like Company Town, Blink, and The Selection are dead - I mean they'd have to be, because The Carrie Diaries ratings only sucked a little less than Nikita so the CW totally had to lack faith in more than a few of their pilots to give The Carrie Diaries another season.
(Looks like The Secret Circle got screwed merely by airing in the wrong season, because if it was airing this season I'm pretty sure it would've been renewed, perhaps even Ringer, as well.)

[RJDiogenes]

^^ That figures.

I was happy to see Nikita get a few more episodes, and kind of surprised that Carrie Diaries did. It must have friends in high places.

[PhoenixHope]

I don't know, I think I must be a bitter old La Femme Nikita fan, because I'm totes stoked that Nikita isn't gonna get more episodes than LFN, because LFN = awesome show - Nikita does not.

See bitter old La Femme Nikita fan.

[RJDiogenes]

It does kind of suck most of the time when a remake does better than the original.