(USA)When will I know the fate of my fav show? UPDate5-11-13

[PhoenixHope]

So, sometimes the ultimate fate of a show is unknown for some time, unless it's pulled off the schedule early (generally that means it ain't coming back) or if it's lucky enough to score an early renewal for the following season. It's typically the bubble to lower shows that while one might guess the fate it's mostly unknown if you're right until the upfronts.

The upfronts are when networks announce their new show pick-ups and their planned schedules for the following season. Generally, if your show isn't mentioned during that it's dead, Jim.
(There are, of course, exceptions last season the fate of Rules of Engagement wasn't known by then, and in the case of Unforgettable it was canceled then only to be revived later to be scheduled as a summer show)

So, you're asking when are the 2013 upfronts?
Here's your answer:

FOX & NBC - May 13, 2013

ABC - May 14, 2013

CBS - May 15, 2013

CW - May 16, 2013

Yes, cable channels also have upfronts spread throughout March, April and May, and while they often announce new shows during those they aren't generally the day all renewals and cancellations are revealed.

Anyway, here's the scripted shows network by network already renewed/canceled:

ABC - CANCELED

Happy Endings
Family Tools
How to Live With Your Parents
Malibu Country
Body of Proof
Red Widow
666 Park Avenue
Last Resort
Private Practice
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23
Zero Hour

ABC - RENEWED

Suburgatory
The Neighbors
Last Man Standing
The Middle
Modern Family
Revenge
Once Upon A Time
Castle
Grey's Anatomy
Scandal
Nashville

CBS - CANCELED

Vegas
Golden Boy
Rules of Engagement
CSI: NY
Made in Jersey
Partners

CBS - RENEWED
3-27: And so finally CBS does a big group of renewals. The top four was renewed before this.

CSI
The Big Bang Theory
NCIS
How I Met Your Mother (For Finale Season)
2 Broke Girls
Mike & Molly
NCIS: Los Angeles
Person Of Interest
Elementary
Hawaii Five-0
The Mentalist
Blue Bloods
The Good Wife
Two and a Half Men
Criminal Minds

CW - CANCELED

Gossip Girl (which ended, but either way it won't be back)
Emily Owens, M.D.
90210
Cult

CW - RENEWED

The Vampire Diaries
Arrow
Supernatural
Hart of Dixie
Beauty and the Beast
Nikita
The Carrie Diaries

FOX - CANCELED

The Mob Doctor
Ben and Kate
Fringe (which ended, but either way it won't be back)
Touch
The Cleveland Show

FOX - RENEWED

Bones
Bob's Burgers
American Dad
The Simpsons
Family Guy
The Following
Raising Hope
New Girl
The Mindy Project
Glee (two season renewal)

NBC - CANCELED

Go On
The New Normal
Smash
Animal Practice
Do No Harm
30 Rock (which ended, but either way it won't be back)
The Office (which is ending, but either way it won't be back)
Deception
1600 Penn
Whitney
Up All Night
Guys With Kids

NBC - RENEWED

Community
Revolution
Chicago Fire
Parenthood
Grimm
Law & Order: Special Victims Unit
Parks and Recreation

Only Hannibal is now waiting for the fat lady to sing.

[RJDiogenes]

No bad news for me. The shows I watch are all renewed, and the couple of shows that I root for even though I don't watch them right now are also renewed.

Hopefully the news from cable will be just as good.

[PhoenixHope]

So, finally all the networks have renewed at least some stuff now except ABC, and it's getting late enough that I'm starting to believe ABC won't announce anything until their upfronts.

Anyway, the CW has even added some renewals (just today in fact) since I first posted this. Currently the CW has renewed: America's Next Top Model, The Vampire Diaries, Arrow, Supernatural, Hart of Dixie, and Beauty and the Beast. To the surprise of some (myself included) no renewal for Nikita yet - there have been some rumors that the CW is only considering renewing Nikita for a half season, but I admit since Nikita is airing a third season I was secure (getting less secure with every renewal the CW does) that Nikita would get renewed and probably for at least 21 episodes, but maybe not.

Oh, and to the surprise of no one The Originals has been ordered to series by the CW.

[RJDiogenes]

Perhaps they are negotiating fees with the producers.

[PhoenixHope]

It could be that, but it seems like there might be a bigger CW/WB dispute over Nikita than just fees. It's starting to seem like CW doesn't want anymore Nikita period, but the WB would like at least a little bit more thank you very much.
(Actually, I think the WB would like a full 21 episodes (for a total of 88), but it seems the CW could be thinking as little as 6, which for fans would be better than none, but probably still more than the CW actually wants and quite a bit less than the WB would want.)

Nikita - Where it stands with the CW

Nikita's future is at risk, Warner Brothers' negotiations with the CW seems to have paused as the CW evaluates its pilots and decides how many to pick up for next season.

<snip>

There is a small chance Nikita could be cancelled and a full season order doesn't seem to be on the table at this point but it could comes close, the episode count will once again depend on how many pilots the CW picks up and could be anywhere from 6 to 18 episode. For now WB executives are hoping CBS pilots 'Blink', 'Company Town', 'Oxygen' and 'Reign' do not test well.

Obviously since only the CW and the WB truly know anything here this should maybe be taken with a grain of salt, but it is (as far as I've seen) one of the more valid explainations for the expected renewal delay I've seen.
(Expected renewal because while Nikita's rating suck - yes, even for the CW even on Friday they suck, but Nikita also only needed 21 episodes to get to the magical stripped syndication number (88) so conventional wisdom was that the CW would bite the low ratings bullet and renew for at least 21 - they could, after all, simply delay Nikita until spring 2014 and then when she starts airing just let her air in place of whatever CW show flops out of fall 2013 (whether it's a flop out of the gate or something that just doesn't do as well as the CW would like) and if she aired into summer who cares the show was clearly done after season four anyway. And why I thought that might honestly happen is because of potential syndication but also because this way Nikita (a proven ratings loser) wouldn't be taking a more valueable fall spot from a potential new show, but now it's starting to look like the CW is simply NOT willing to bite the low-ratings bullet for any longer than it absolutely has too, or to be fair the CW may be starting to think about what might/could happen when local CW current contracts with the "big" CW run out. If they (the big CW) have stuff that can at least rate as well as local CW programming then it makes it more likely local CWs will renew contracts with the big one, but if local CW programming continues to rate better than most (not all) of the CWs programming then that's not much of an enticement for local stations to stay with the national one.)

[RJDiogenes]

That's what I was thinking about in terms of fees. If the studio is willing to lower the amount they charge to CW for Nikita, lowering short-term profits or even losing money, then it could still be profitable to CW and the studio could make their money in the long run through syndication and DVD sales.

[PhoenixHope]

Yeah, I guess how low the WB is willing to go in the short-term is directly related to how much they expect to be earned in the long-term. And I'm kinda assuming (if it's true that negotiations was put on hold) that may indicate that the WB doesn't see much of a "backend" and therefore isn't completely willing to take a total loss in the short-term.

The only thing I know for sure is actually old news really in regards to Nikita her ratings have always been disappointing - first season she didn't hang on to as much of The Vampire Diaries audience as even Supernatural the season before, and it was expected that Nikita would hold audience better.
(Also, rumor (there's that word again) has it that for season two - her first season on Friday - the CW was expecting/hoping she'd at least score around a 0.7 and then she couldn't rise above a 0.6 and by mid-season started seeing more than a few 0.4s.)

And the other thing was the reports that sales of the first season Nikita DVDs was "disappointing." No numbers ever published that I could find just the quote about sales being disappointing. And I expect again the CW was disappointed with ratings this season, because last season there was talk about the local CWs wanting Nikita in the later hour because of her overall viewers so the CW moved Nikita to the latter hour and she almost crashed and burned before the mid-season, which was why at mid-season she moved back to the early hour.

So my guess is the CW doesn't want to pay more than pennies (speaking in network terms which means pennies are not the same for this as they are for normal folk) per episode for Nikita, but that Nikita isn't actually earning lots of backend money so the WB doesn't want to take a complete loss upfront.

Still I'd bet on at least some renewal (as stated in another thread by me), though if it's true about the WB hoping some of the potential new shows test badly then it would seem Nikita is honestly in more than a little danger of not returning. Still considering the WB owned Fringe (which the FOX prez admitted wasn't profittable to them) still got a final season I expect the WB to end up going as low as they gotta go to at least get a half season.

[PhoenixHope]

So after the flurry of news drops yesterday it looks like the only scripted show who's fate is still unknown is NBCs Hannibal. And it's fate will be known by Monday afternoon (upfront time for NBC) if not by Sunday night.

[PhoenixHope]

So after the flurry of news drops yesterday it looks like the only scripted show who's fate is still unknown is NBCs Hannibal. And it's fate will be known by Monday afternoon (upfront time for NBC) if not by Sunday night.

Or not...

NBC had their upfronts today and still no Hannibal news, and has revealed that it could be a couple weeks before a decision is made/announced regarding Hannibal.

[RJDiogenes]

That's not good news. I wonder what they're fretting about.