2013/14: Will my (broadcast) show be canceled or renewed?

[RJDiogenes]

Well, a show with good ratings still supports their schedule. Unless they're really sure they have something else that will do as well or better, they'd be pretty silly to cancel it.

[PhoenixHope]

True, but in this case you've got to follow the money. The only money CBS makes on The Mentalist is whatever profit they make in ad sales (remember that CBS does have to pay a fee to the WB for The Mentalist so even then ad sales aren't pure profit for CBS). On the other hand with Blue Bloods (the lowest rated renewed show on CBS) CBS doesn't just make money on ad sales they make money on the entire backend for that one. Of course, by the same token they bear the total cost of making the show, but again everything above that cost is pure profit for CBS.

But also I think The Mentalist would be heading into a seventh season and shows get more expensive as they age, though from what I've heard The Mentalist got a severe cast trim for the current season, which is probably a cost saving measure for renewal this season. Still the WB could again drop the price they charge CBS to air it, BUT they would only be willing to do that if they thought they could make it up on the backend.

Basically, at this point what I'm saying is that it's not really about ratings (despite The Mentalist out-rating three other CBS shows - well, four if you count the obvious cancels - because it doesn't out-rate them by that much) it's first about whether CBS can make money on it and then whether CBS needs it for their schedule. If CBS decides that yes they could find a place for it but the WB charges them so much that they can't make a profit from the ad sales then it falls to the WB to decide if it's worth giving CBS another discount upfront, and they would only do that if they feel they can make it up on the backend, and the cast cuts for this season makes it seem likely they maybe have cut as much as they can, so it doesn't look good.

It also doesn't look good that it wasn't renewed in the super mega renewal today, because last season the only show (that I can recall at the moment) renewed AFTER the big drop was Criminal Minds, which was an obvious renewal and was only delayed because cast contracts needed working out.

And the year before that I think it was Unforgetable, but that one was actually canceled until AFTER the upfronts and only ended up coming back because CBS needed something for summer.

Those previous paragraphs are small because I don't feel like going back and looking to see if there was another show or two renewed after the big renewal, but I think in recent seasons those was the only two that came in renewed after the big renewal-fest. And I just think if there's going to be another exception like the previous two mentioned this time around I think that would be The Crazy Ones.

[RJDiogenes]

So many things are decided by business and politics. It doesn't matter that many people like it, just if a few people's pockets get lined. So the WB would have to decide that they can lose money on first-run and then make it up in syndication and DVD sales.

[PhoenixHope]

Yep, and that's something only they'd know, since those figures are rarely public.

[PhoenixHope]

AAAAND now NBC has made some official renewals:

NBC

Renewed

The Blacklist
Parks and Recreation
The Voice
Celebrity Apprentice
The Biggest Loser
Grimm
Chicago Fire
Chicago P.D.

Canceled

The Michael J Fox Show
Sean Saves the World
Ironside
Welcome to the Family

Basically with this it means (with the exception of ABC shows) if the show isn't renewed then it's no higher than a toss up for renewal.

[RJDiogenes]

I feel bad for Michael J. Fox, but kudos to Grimm for hanging in there. Looks like Dracula is neither renewed nor cancelled-- it's kind of undead.

[PhoenixHope]

Yeah, I mean Dracula and Hannibal are both in that cancel me range, but as I understand it both are cheaper than the average on air TV drama, so they could both come back or neither of them could it mostly depends on NBCs needs with regards to next season.

And just so there's no misunderstanding I said if a show hasn't been renewed now it's no higher than a toss up for renewal now, and that's exactly what I meant. I didn't mean that the non-renewed shows are certain to be canceled just that because they haven't been renewed they are no higher than toss ups (i.e. 50/50) except in a rare few cases, or the cases of shows yet to premiere, though premiering this late almost makes a show a toss up by default.

Some of the rare few cases include all ABC shows (because ABC has yet to renew anything) and Family Guy on FOX which is certain to be renewed even though it hasn't been yet. Also, Hart of Dixie on the CW which is certain to be renewed, but the CW is likely waiting to see what Hart of Dixie will do on Friday before deciding between a full season renewal or a lesser renewal (half-season or a Nikita-like renewal).

Anyway, I was all prepared to do another renew/cancel post this week, but then The 100 had to go and have a decent (for the CW) premiere. So now I need to see another week maybe two before I'll feel comfortable making a guess, but if it holds up (i.e. doesn't fall under a 0.6 then it'll likely be renewed).

For the record, I'll list all the CW shows ratings so far this week so you can see relative to the rest how well The 100 actually did.

Monday, March 17th

Star-Crossed
- 1.00 million viewers
- 0.3/1 A18-49

The Tomorrow People
- 1.17 million viewers
- 0.4/1 A18-49

Tuesday, March 18th

The Originals
- 1.53 million viewers
- 0.7/2 A18-49

Supernatural
- 1.86 million viewers
- 0.9/2 A18-49

Wednesday, March 19th

Arrow
- 2.42 million viewers
- 0.8/3 A18-49

The 100 (Series Premiere)
- 2.73 million viewers
- 0.9/3 A18-49

Thursday, March 20th

The Vampire Diaries
- 2.28 million viewers
- 1.1/4 A18-49

Reign
- 1.61 million viewers
- 0.7/2 A18-49

Now to be fair on Tuesday the CW was pre-empted in many areas for sports, but also The Originals was up against the much hyped season finale of Pretty Little Liars. And one other thing - that's not the first 0.4 for The Tomorrow People in it's last Wednesday airing it scored a 0.4, so at least it didn't drop more after the move, but it does look like the CW made the correct choice between Reign and The Tomorrow People, though I still expect next season Reign will end up at least like Nikita (barely holding on, but at least getting four seasons) OR Beauty and the Beast (flops without the lead-in). Right now it almost looks like it'll be more Nikita-like than Beauty and the Beast, but time will tell.

[RJDiogenes]

Wow, The 100 really did do pretty well. Lots of viewers, although that 18-49 number is closer to Supernatural and Arrow. I wonder where those extra millions of viewers come from-- higher or lower?

[PhoenixHope]

Okay since this thread was getting a little cluttered (with all the updates from networks renewing or canceling) I decided to start a fresh thread for my final renew/cancel guesses of the 2013/14 broadcast season.

I'll start putting updates on networks renew/cancel there as well as perhaps tweaking my guesses.