How well does Twitter align with TV program ratings? The recent Nielsen/SocialGuide study confirmed that increases in Twitter volume correlate to increases in TV ratings for varying age groups, revealing a stronger correlation for younger audiences. Specifically, the study found that for 18-34 year olds, an 8.5% increase in Twitter volume corresponds to a 1% increase in TV ratings for premiere episodes, and a 4.2% increase in Twitter volume corresponds with a 1% increase in ratings for midseason episodes. Additionally, a 14.0% increase in Twitter volume is associated with a 1% increase in TV program ratings for 35-49 year olds, reflecting a stronger relationship between Twitter and TV for younger audiences.
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Further, the study found that the correlation between Tweets and TV ratings strengthens for midseason episodes for both age groups. An increase in Twitter volume of 4.2% and 8.4% is associated with a 1% increase in ratings for 18-34 year olds and 35-49 year olds, respectively. Moreover, by midseason Twitter was responsible for more of the variance in ratings for 18-34 year olds than advertising spend.
This seems like a way to blow smoke up Twitters ass. Of course, more popular shows (or rather shows with rabid fans, because the higher rated shows on TV - NCIS and so on don't actually get that much online attention) get tweeted about more. But Tweets only help a show if the tweeter watches live on TV. Now to be fair this does indicate that Twitter might help get shows sampled, but again it only counts if you then also watch the show live on TV - online viewing will not save a show, and certainly twitting about it won't save it unless that actually gets people to start watching said show live on TV.
Yes, that could maybe change in the future, but right now while online viewing is counted by networks (if it's legal viewing anyway) it's still the advertisers that support TV - meaning that the best way to get a show renewed is still watching it live on TV while also watching the ads live on TV.