Part 4: CW ratings and things (Live +7 Day info - ad sales

[PhoenixHope]

Honestly even after last night's episode I'm still feeling very "Meh" about the whole thing.

The only thing I did like was Lily and mom bonding a bit and Regina's ah-ha moment. Which might be why I'm not excited about the changes coming, because somehow I suspect that'll wipe out Regina's new understanding of her path to happiness.

[RJDiogenes]

Maybe, but I'm looking forward to the OUAT's equivalent of the Mirror Universe.

[PhoenixHope]

I should be, considering I generally love stuff like this, but for whatever reason I'm just not excited about this. *shrug* Hopefully the finale will be better than I expect, but I'm not really expecting that.

[PhoenixHope]

DVR7

Week Thirty One
(April 20 - 26)

The Flash
Live 1.3
DVR7 2.2

Arrow
Live 1.0
DVR7 ??

Supernatural
Live 0.7
DVR7 ??

The Vampire Diaries
Live 0.6
DVR7 1.2

iZombie
Live 0.6
DVR7 1.0

The Originals
Live 0.5
DVR7 0.9

Jane the Virgin
Live 0.4
DVR7 0.7

Reign
Live 0.3
DVR7 0.5

Whose Line Is It Anyway
Live 0.3
DVR7 0.5

The Messengers
Live 0.2
DVR7 ??

BONUS

The Big Bang Theory (CBS)
Live 3.6
DVR7 5.7

Once Upon A Time (ABC)
Live 1.7
DVR7 2.7

Marvel's Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. (ABC)
Live 1.6
DVR7 2.7

Grimm (NBC)
Live 1.0
DVR7 1.7

As for the Once Upon A Time finale it was better than I was expecting. Of course, I'd have probably loved it just for the Jack Sparrow reference alone, but there was so much more I liked. Including (shockingly) Henry becoming the new author, which I knew the show was headed to having a new author but it didn't dawn on me (for some reason) until during this episode that the new author would be Henry.

[RJDiogenes]

Well, at least I don't have to worry about SHIELD for now.

Supernatural continues to be a bit weak this year. Vampire Diaries and Originals seem a bit weak, too. I wonder what will happen to VD next year.

[PhoenixHope]

DVR7

Week Thirty Two
(April 27 - May 3)

The Flash
Live 1.5
DVR7 2.4

Arrow
Live 0.9
DVR7 ??

Supernatural
Live 0.7
DVR7 ??

iZombie
Live 0.7
DVR7 ??

The Vampire Diaries
Live 0.5
DVR7 1.0

The Originals
Live 0.5
DVR7 0.9

Jane the Virgin
Live 0.4
DVR7 0.7

Reign
Live 0.3
DVR7 0.6

Whose Line is it Anyway?
Live 0.3
DVR7 0.5

The Messengers
Live 0.2
DVR7 0.5

BONUS:

The Big Bang Theory (CBS)
Live 3.4
DVR7 5.2

Once Upon A Time (ABC)
Live 1.7
DVR7 2.7

Marvel's Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. (ABC)
Live 1.5
DVR7 2.6

Grimm (NBC)
Live 0.9
DVR7 1.6

[RJDiogenes]

Still a couple of weeks to go until the season finales, but we know everyone will be back next year anyway.

I'm still surprised they didn't put Supernatural back on Tuesday, though. It seems to do better there.

[PhoenixHope]

Okay, so with the exception of iZombie and The Messengers the CW shows have now all finaled out for the season. So, here's the plain ol' A18-49 ratings for ALL the CW shows:

The Originals
- 0.7 (Season Premiere) 10/6/14
- 0.7
- 0.6
- 0.6
- 0.5
- 0.7
- 0.7
- 0.6
- 0.6
HIATUS
- 0.6
- 0.7
- 0.7
- 0.5
- 0.6
- 0.5
- 0.5
- 0.5
- 0.5
- 0.5
- 0.5
- 0.5
- 0.5 (Season Finale) 5/11/15

Jane the Virgin
- 0.6 (Series Premiere) 10/13/14
- 0.5
- 0.4
- 0.4
- 0.5
- 0.4
- 0.4
- 0.5
- 0.5
HIATUS
- 0.5
- 0.6
- 0.5
- 0.6
- 0.6
- 0.5
- 0.5
- 0.4
- 0.4
- 0.4
- 0.4
- 0.5
- 0.5 (Season Finale) 5/11/15

The Flash
- 1.9 (Series Premiere) 10/7/14
- 1.7
- 1.5
- 1.4
- 1.4
- 1.4
- 1.4
- 1.6
- 1.5
HIATUS
- 1.4
- 1.3
- 1.3
- 1.5
- 1.5
- 1.3
- 1.2
- 1.3
- 1.4
- 1.3
- 1.5
- 1.4
- 1.5
- 1.5 (Season Finale) 5/19/15

iZombie
- 0.8 (Series Premiere) 3/17/15
- 0.7
- 0.7
- 0.7
- 0.8
- 0.6
- 0.7
- 0.6
- 0.6
- 0.6
- 0.6 5/26/15
- 0.6 6/2/15
- 0.5 (Season Finale) 6/9/15

Arrow
- 1.0 (Season Premiere) 10/8/14
- 0.8
- 0.9
- 1.0
- 1.1
- 0.9
- 0.9
- 1.4
- 1.1
HIATUS
- 1.1
- 1.1
- 1.2
- 1.1
- 1.2
- 0.9
- 1.0
- 0.8
- 0.9
- 1.0
- 0.9
- 1.0
- 1.0 (Season Finale) 5/13/15

Supernatural
- 1.1 (Season Premiere) 10/7/14
- 1.0
- 0.9
- 0.8
- 0.9
- 1.0
- 0.9
- 0.9
- 1.0
HIATUS
- 0.9
- 0.7
- 0.8
- 0.8
- 0.8
- 0.6
- 0.7
- 0.6
- 0.6
- 0.7
- 0.7
- 0.6
- 0.7
- 0.7 (Season Finale) 5/20/15

The 100
- 0.5 (Season Premiere) 10/22/14
- 0.5
- 0.5
- 0.5
- 0.6
- 0.6
- 0.6
- 0.5
HIATUS
- 0.5
- 0.5
- 0.5
- 0.5
- 0.5
- 0.5
- 0.4 (Season Finale) 3/11/15

The Vampire Diaries
- 0.9 (Season Premiere) 10/2/14
- 0.8
- 0.9
- 0.8
- 0.8
- 0.8
- 0.7
- 0.8
- 0.7
- 0.9
HIATUS
- 0.8
- 0.7
- 0.7
- 0.7
- 0.7
- 0.6
- 0.7
- 0.6
- 0.6
- 0.5
- 0.6
- 0.7 (Season Finale) 5/14/15

Reign
- 0.4 (Season Premiere) 10/2/14
- 0.4
- 0.4
- 0.5
- 0.5
- 0.4
- 0.4
- 0.3
- 0.4
- 0.5
HIATUS
- 0.4
- 0.4
- 0.4
- 0.4
- 0.4
- 0.4
- 0.3
- 0.3
- 0.3
- 0.3
- 0.3
- 0.3 (Season Finale) 5/14/15

Hart of Dixie
- 0.4 (Season Premiere) Monday
- 0.4 Friday 1/16/15
- 0.5
- 0.3
- 0.5
- 0.4
- 0.4
- 0.4
- 0.4
- 0.4 (Series Finale) 3/27/15

The Messengers
- 0.3 (Season Premiere) 4/17/15
- 0.2
- 0.2
- 0.2
- 0.2
- 0.2
- 0.2 5/29/15
- 0.2 6/5/15
- 0.2 6/12/15
- 0.2 6/19/15
- ? 6/26/15
-
- (Series Finale)

[RJDiogenes]

Interesting. An alarming drop for Supernatural, significant drops for Vampire Diaries and Originals[i/], but most of these shows did really well at holding onto their audience.

[PhoenixHope]

This might help put things in prespective (just remember I'm not the best at maths) the CWs scripted average A18-49 rating for the season that just finished was roughly a 0.7 (in actuality I think the number is something like 0.67, which rounds up to a 0.7), so in most cases shows at or above the network average will always be renewed. Not always, but most of the time.
(And sometimes, but especially with the CW, shows a little bit more off the network average will garner a renewal or at least be enough for some form of a final season.)

So shows like The Flash with it's whooping 1.4 average was clearly safe (and double the CW average rating) and even Arrow with its more modest 1.0 was safe.

But also shows like Supernatural and The Vampire Diaries look better in comparison to the average. Supernaturals season average was a 0.8 (and even the lower spring average is just over a 0.7) which puts it at least a tenth of a point higher than the average, and The Vampire Diaries has a 0.7 average that has it right on the line.

Even right now iZombie is almost at the network average with a 0.68 (which actually has it a bit over the average if I'm right about the average actually being less than 0.7, but with rounding is like The Vampire Diaries right on the line though it should be noted that The Vampire Diaries has a 0.7 average without rounding). And while The Originals sadly did suffer more than a little this season it's average is (I think) a 0.58 meaning that yes while it's below average I think that all things considered even on a more highly rated network being just shy of the average would've seen it renewed.

However, the rest of the CW shows even (and maybe especially) on a higher rated network would've been true toss ups, because the next CW shows that comes even within two tenths of the network average is The 100 and Jane the Virgin with 0.5 averages, which because this is the CW I would've listed as likely renewed, because even higher rated networks would balk at canceling almost half their line-up.

However, what should be obvious is that only on the CW would Reign have been renewed, because that 0.4 average puts it three tenths less than the scripted average. So I hope that explains why I was thinking because of CBS (the other studio backing the CW) Reign would be renewed but moved to summer and I still think it's rather likely that Reign will air half its season on Friday then pulled from the schedule to finish its run in the summer ala Beauty and the Beast - I could be wrong, but shows moving to Friday always lose a little in the ratings (and if Reign loses anything at all it'll be in The Messengers territory) and come mid-season the CW will need the space for something.
(It should be noted that even the "bigger" networks will renew shows that are WAY off the network average if the show is a show that airs on Fridays, which is why some (myself included) didn't understand how the CW could renew Reign with an average on Thursdays that does NOT put it ahead of Friday's Hart of Dixie.)

I didn't mention (or factor) Hart of Dixie because all things considered I think this one was done after this season no matter what its ratings average was (though I'd say probably roughly a 0.4 average). And I didn't mention The Messengers because it's already been canceled, but for the curious it's a 0.2 average, and made by the WB so of course it was a goner - though with the CW one can't always be sure, but it seems (based on recent history) WB shows with below average ratings are canceled while CBS shows with below average ratings are renewed but moved outta the way to finish whatever runs CBS wants them to finish.

[RJDiogenes]

That makes sense. You have a much better understanding of how these things work than I do. It does sound like Supernatural is not necessarily safe past season eleven at if it drops much more, considering how many seasons it already has under its belt.

[PhoenixHope]

It comes from years and years of watching and trying to figure out whether or not the show(s) I watch(ed) was gonna continue or not. Once upon a time I had no damn clue (and sometimes even still I'll have a rather BIG miss or two) - it wasn't until sometime during Buffy (I think) that I really started to figure some of this shit out.

But at first I had all kinds of wrong-headed ideas about things - the one that took me the longest to figure out (and wasn't something I really figured out until sometime after Buffy) was that while networks can (and do) brag about overall viewers it's the A18-49 demo that knows all rules all and sees all - well, not really, but it does rule all. Unless it's on cable (or sometimes even on networks but outside of primetime), but then it's still demo just a slightly different one. And unless its a network primetime show that has wealthy viewers - basically what I'm saying is that while there are some hard-fast rules there are also exceptions to them and that's more where my misses come from these days.

Anyway, as far as Supernatural is concerned I'd say as long as the (ratings) bottom doesn't fall out from under it during the coming season then it'll get some kind of season twelve - might not be a full one, but still some form of one.
(Or it could benefit from something like what happened during its seventh season - the ratings on the CW as a whole was down, so even though Supernatural went rather low ratings-wise that season it still ended up being the second (I think) highest rated show for the network, because the CW average that year was shit, but I think either way if Supernatural can hang next season about (or better) than it did this season it'll be okay.)

Honestly, I'm sorta thinking the same thing of The Vampire Diaries as long as the ratings hang about where they hung this season I think it'll get some form of an eighth season. Of course, The Vampire Diaries might not be able to do that since one of the main stars has left, but it could.

PS - DVR7 ratings won't be out today - should be out tomorrow, but might possibly not be posted here until Wednesday since tomorrow will be a big (read busy) day at work for me and could end up having me working a long-ass shift.
(For the curious I am NOT unhappy about this, because today was slow and sadly I got sent home a couple hours early so making it up tomorrow would be nice. On the other hand, today I had some errands to run, so it could all end up working out nicely.)

[RJDiogenes]

How is the new job going overall? Is it easier on the tootsies?

[PhoenixHope]

DVR7

Week Thirty Three
(May 4 -10)

The Flash
Live 1.5
DVR7 2.4

Arrow
Live 1.0
DVR7 1.7

The Vampire Diaries
Live 0.6
DVR7 1.2

iZombie
Live 0.6
DVR7 1.1

Supernatural
Live 0.6
DVR7 1.0

The Originals
Live 0.5
DVR7 0.9

Jane the Virgin
Live 0.5
DVR7 ??

Reign
Live 0.3
DVR7 0.6

The Messengers
Live 0.2
DVR7 ??

BONUS

The Big Bang Theory (CBS)
Live 3.7
DVR7 5.8

Once Upon A Time (ABC)
Live 1.8
DVR7 2.8

Marvel's Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. (ABC)
Live 1.5
DVR7 2.6

Grimm (NBC)
Live 1.0
DVR7 1.7

Is it easier on the tootsies?

YES!

Don't get me wrong, my feet still hurt, but they pretty much always hurt and the new job isn't as hard on them - because while yes I am still standing and moving during my shifts generally I don't have to walk near as far as I did in my old job. Plus the shifts aren't generally as long in my new job.

As for the job itself - I think I've got it mostly figured out. I'll still have to pause and think about a few things here and there, but mostly I think I've got it.

[RJDiogenes]

^^ That's fantastic. Things are working out. Hopefully you're taking home more money, too.

[PhoenixHope]

DVR7

Week Thirty Four
(May 11 - 17)

The Flash
Live 1.5
DVR7 2.4

Arrow
Live 1.0
DVR7 1.7

Supernatural
Live 0.7
DVR7 ??

The Vampire Diaries (Season Finale)
Live 0.7
DVR7 ??

iZombie
Live 0.6
DVR7 ??

The Originals (Season Finale)
Live 0.5
DVR7 ??

Jane the Virgin (Season Finale)
Live 0.5
DVR7 ??

Reign (Season Finale)
Live 0.3
DVR7 ??

The Messengers
Live 0.2
DVR7 ??

Probably the reason only a few CW shows made the list for this week is because a great many shows on all networks was finales so the poor CW shows got mostly booted off the list.

BONUS

Marvel's Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. (ABC)
Live 1.3
DVR7 2.5

Grimm (NBC) (Season Finale)
Live 1.1
DVR7 1.9

[RJDiogenes]

But Supernatural and VD got a slight boost, anyway. SHIELD is down, but we're already guaranteed another year so it doesn't matter too much.

[PhoenixHope]

Actually, since Marvel's Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. will be starting its third season this fall you are pretty much assured of two more seasons at this point (three and then four) - though as FOX showed with The Mindy Project it doesn't necessarily mean said fourth season will air on ABC just that it will air somewhere out there.

However, since ABC (Disney aka Marvel) owns ABC I'm reasonably certain said fourth season will actually air on ABC aka Nashville, who's ratings otherwise would've gotten it canceled but because it is owned by ABC it goes ahead with a fourth season on ABC.

[RJDiogenes]

You know, I was actually thinking that. If it gets a third season, it's likely to get a fourth, so it will reach the minimum syndication number. I'm learning.

[PhoenixHope]

See - it's not that hard.

The hardest parts are first getting rid of all the wrongheaded ideas you might have. For example (and for me at first), while show A is low-rated it always wins its timeslot (meaning it rates higher than whatever shows Networks B, C, and D air at the same time) so of course network A will renew. Yes, to some extent networks care about out-rating other networks, but not on a show vs show basis. Basically the higher the networks own average the more likely it is to overall beat other networks and a low rated show drags that average down. So, yeah, several low-rated shows over the years have won against other networks, but when they kept getting canceled despite that I had to reevaluate and I started to realize that even though said low-rated show can win the timeslot wars they was almost always WAY under the network average.

Or another one that I often see from other people - retention. For example, The Big Bang Theory almost always holds up the ratings of the show that airs behind it, so that show will rate well while it's airing there but sometimes said shows can lose almost half as much audience (ratings) from the show it airs behind, which doesn't make the show look awesome. However, despite what some think that doesn't actually matter. Sure it doesn't rate as well as the megahit it airs after, but what actually matters is how well said shows ratings look in comparison to the overall network average.
(Now granted on this one sometimes a show will be renewed after spending a season behind a megahit and then be canceled the next season when the network moves said show to another slot and is shocked (shocked, I tell you!) that said show cannot hold it's own without said megahit. No, I don't think the network is actually shocked, but simply hopeful that said show isn't being held up by the megahit and can maybe possibly hold its own somewhere else on the schedule. Sometimes it does most times it won't, but networks have to try.)

The other hardest thing is when the unwritten rules change. It is to some extent happening now. The CW has somewhat been this way all along - they only air shows made by CBS and the WB the studios behind the network so they can herd to an extent low-rated shows to syndication because while the network doesn't make a profit on them the studios do. But now that is starting to happen with at least CBS and seemingly ABC as well.
(Otherwise what the hell was up with them renewing American Crime (seriously that one is ABCs Beauty and the Beast) but also renewing and leaving the struggling in the ratings Nashville in a prime weekday slot while shoving their new offerings into less than prime slots.)

When I first started it was almost always about the ratings in relation to the network average and that's not always the case anymore. Okay, so it wasn't ever always the case, because some well enough rated shows can (and have in the past) age(d) out of profit and have been canceled with still acceptable looking ratings. But now it's starting to seem more and more for some of the low-rated shows one is going to need to look at the studio behind said shows, because it seems almost as if the big networks are set to start following the CW model on this. If a show is low-rated but made by the networks own studio it could very well be renewed despite unacceptable ratings.
(Though there has to be a ratings bottom to this, but so far I haven't figured that out at least as far as the big networks are concerned - I think I've half-ass got it figured out in relation to the CW.)

[RJDiogenes]

I wonder how often they take foreign markets into consideration. I seem to remember reading once about a show that wasn't doing too well here, but was a hit overseas. Although I suppose in that situation they could just produce it exclusively for the foreign market.

[PhoenixHope]

Not near as often as internet urban legend would have you believe. For the most part if the show does not have the ratings in the US then the show is canceled even if it has eleventy billion viewers overseas.

However, there are sometimes exceptions - after all that's really the only explanation for the continuation of Beauty and the Beast.
(The big rumor is that CBS sold that one overseas in at least a three season bundle (but could've been more - we'll know almost for certain by whether or not Beauty and the Beast is renewed after the current renewals run their course) before it ever even aired in the US, and the fact that the CW keeps renewing it is evidence in support of that rumor.)

Of course, overseas sales no doubt count at least as far as syndication and DVD sales are concerned, but so far as I know Beauty and the Beast is the only show to continue to be made seemingly for the overseas audience. And that's probably because certain rumors suggest that Beauty and the Beast is one of the cheapest shows ever made.
(Clearly it's somewhat profitable for that one show, but I think for the most part overseas sales do not garner enough profit to justify the continued cost of making a show that hasn't/didn't make it in US markets, because as I say as far as I know its only in this one case that it's actually happened.)

[RJDiogenes]

Interesting. It was believable to me, because I know there are other companies, like Coke and some candy companies, that make products that are sold exclusively overseas. But then, I suppose, they also have the manufacturing plants overseas as well.

[PhoenixHope]

DVR7

Week Thirty Five
(May 18 - 24)

The Flash (Season Finale)
Live 1.5
DVR7 2.5

Supernatural (Season Finale)
Live 0.7
DVR7 1.3

iZombie
Live 0.6
DVR7 1.0

The Messengers
Live 0.2
DVR7 ??

The bonus list this week is different. It's the season averages rather than just one weeks numbers - Both the overall A18-49 average and the overall DVR7 average. Which proves that adding 100% when the DVR7 is added in is meaningless, because the one CW show that averaged a 100% increase is one of the few CW canceled shows. All total there was three canceled (maybe four because I don't remember if Masters of Illusion was canceled) Barber Battle, Hart of Dixie, and The Messengers.

The Messengers
Live 0.2
DVR7 0.4
100%

The Vampire Diaries
Live 0.7
DVR7 1.3
86%

The Originals
Live 0.6
DVR7 1.1
83%

The 100
Live 0.5
DVR7 0.9
80%

Hart of Dixie
Live 0.4
DVR7 0.7
75%

Reign
Live 0.4
DVR7 0.7
75%

The Flash
Live 1.4
DVR7 2.4
71%

Supernatural
Live 0.8
DVR7 1.3
63%

Arrow
Live 1.0
DVR7 1.6
60%

Jane the Virgin
Live 0.5
DVR7 0.8
60%

iZombie
Live 0.7
DVR7 1.1
57%

America's Next Top Model
Live 0.4
DVR7 0.6
50%

Whose Line is it Anyway
Live 0.4
DVR7 0.6
50%

Barber Battle
Live 0.2
DVR7 0.3
50%

Masters of Illusion
Live 0.3
DVR7 0.3
0%

The Bonus List (also averages):

Grimm (NBC)
Live 1.1
DVR7 2.1
91%

Constantine (NBC)
Live 0.9
DVR7 1.6
78%

Marvel's Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. (ABC)
Live 1.6
DVR7 2.8
75%

Sleepy Hollow (FOX)
Live 1.5
DVR7 2.6
73%

Marvel's Agent Carter (ABC)
Live 1.5
DVR7 2.4
60%

Bones (FOX)
Live 1.3
DVR7 2.0
54%

The Big Bang Theory (CBS)
Live 4.3
DVR7 6.5
51%

Once Upon A Time (ABC)
Live 2.2
DVR7 3.3
50%

Empire (FOX)
Live 5.0
DVR7 7.1
42%

[RJDiogenes]

Interesting how Flash, SHIELD, Agent Carter, and Sleepy Hollow all have close to the same ratings on average.