2019 Politics- Life in Trump World

[Lupine]

^^ Yeah, Republicans seem to be fleeing in droves, although I don't know how the current attrition compares to the average. But there are many ways the next election can go. If the Democrats don't screw things up royally, they could gain control of both houses of Congress and the White House, at least until mid-terms.

That's the scary part. Electorally we're sitting on a knife's edge.

And just for the heck of it, I've been playing around with 270 To Win. I know it's a long way to the election yet but I came up with a couple of different scenarios. The way it looks right now the election will come down to North Carolina, Georgia (where Biden is polling surprisingly well according to FiveThirtyEight), and Florida.

First up (assuming he wins the nomination) is Biden's best case scenario:

But all Biden will need is either North Carolina, Georgia, or Florida to go for him.

Next up is Trump's best case scenario:

This gives him 271 Electoral Votes- which starts to make him vulnerable to Faithless Electors. As bad as a Trump victory would be I shudder to think what the reaction would be to him losing due to that.

[RJDiogenes]

Anything can happen these days.

But I think this election will play out more like a second-term election than a first-term. Trump has racked up far more fatigue points in three years than any other president does in eight.

[scottydog]

I'm happy to see Virginia blue in both scenarios. But how is Ohio blue in both? Have they really turned against Trump?

[Lupine]

One poll I was looking at had Biden up by +4. This poll has him up by 6 or 8 (though it's a few months old).

[Gary]

'Lot of issues': Former Obama doctor says Biden 'not a healthy guy’

I've seen this article in numerous places, so don't crucify me because it's from the Examiner. Biden is too milquetoast, bland, and old to be running for President. Elizabeth Warren would be 71 when sworn into office; however, she appears to be in my better health as well as in control of her faculties. Robert Reich's YouTube channel has a great presentation on why 2020 needs a candidate who is a shock to the system rather than playing it safe, a-la Joe Biden.

[Lupine]

^I disagree. We need safe right now. We've had a shock to the system in the form of Trump and that hasn't worked out well.

'Lot of issues': Former Obama doctor says Biden 'not a healthy guy’

Of course I remember in 2016 when Hillary Clinton was on her deathbed.
Unless this guy has examined Biden personally his opinion isn't really worth much and it just sounds a bit like a repeat of the tactics used in 2016.

[RJDiogenes]

Yeah, this is the 21st century. If ancient Egypt and ancient China could have guys in their 90s, we can manage a guy in his 70s. And Sleepy Joe is the perfect antidote to Psycho Donald.

I'm happy to see Virginia blue in both scenarios. But how is Ohio blue in both? Have they really turned against Trump?

Actually, Ohio was Democratic for decades until the last election.

[Gary]

^I disagree. We need safe right now. We've had a shock to the system in the form of Trump and that hasn't worked out well.

'Lot of issues': Former Obama doctor says Biden 'not a healthy guy’

Of course I remember in 2016 when Hillary Clinton was on her deathbed.
Unless this guy has examined Biden personally his opinion isn't really worth much and it just sounds a bit like a repeat of the tactics used in 2016.

It is painfully obvious Joe Biden's mental faculties are not all there. He's not as bad as Donald Trump, but he is a relic who needs to take a back seat to a younger generation or someone who is going to make changes. Teddy Roosevelt "shocked the system", and there's no reason why the 21st Century can't have a new Teddy Roosevelt in the Oval Office once again. Playing it safe means another four years of the current dumpster fire.

Robert Reich: Why 2020 Won't Be Won By Centrists

Why Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren Will Win the Presidency with Robert Reich

[Lupine]

It is painfully obvious Joe Biden's mental faculties are not all there. He's not as bad as Donald Trump, but he is a relic who needs to take a back seat to a younger generation or someone who is going to make changes. Teddy Roosevelt "shocked the system", and there's no reason why the 21st Century can't have a new Teddy Roosevelt in the Oval Office once again. Playing it safe means another four years of the current dumpster fire.

Roosevelt was coming off a stable Presidency though and I'm not sure he was as much of a shock as people make out- though he did a lot of good. Trump has severely damaged the United States both politically and socially, probably more so than most people realize. And while shocking the system plays well with the base the Democrats will still need the votes of people who are more centrist.

[RJDiogenes]

I don't want "new party who dis," I want a grown up.

[scottydog]

Do y'all think that it's possible that 45 will only be defeated if there's a downturn in the economy before next November?

[Lupine]

^Possible as the economy is usually played up as a major factor. It should matter was Trump is a terrible President regardless on what the economy may or may not be doing.

[Gary]

It is painfully obvious Joe Biden's mental faculties are not all there. He's not as bad as Donald Trump, but he is a relic who needs to take a back seat to a younger generation or someone who is going to make changes. Teddy Roosevelt "shocked the system", and there's no reason why the 21st Century can't have a new Teddy Roosevelt in the Oval Office once again. Playing it safe means another four years of the current dumpster fire.

Roosevelt was coming off a stable Presidency though and I'm not sure he was as much of a shock as people make out- though he did a lot of good. Trump has severely damaged the United States both politically and socially, probably more so than most people realize. And while shocking the system plays well with the base the Democrats will still need the votes of people who are more centrist.

I think Reich hits the nail on the head. Look at how popular the Affordable Healthcare Act's provisions are with people. The GOP, lead by Trump, declared the ACA would be repealed and replaced (allegedly) with something better -- yet nothing has happened. Whatever happened to the plans for repairing and updating the US's infrastructure? The scare of "ooga-booga socialism" isn't working anymore, either.

If anything, Teddy Roosevelt was a Democratic Socialist. A centrist will drive people away more than luring them to vote. Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, and the other non-crazies (crazies being Klobuchar and Gabbard) are hitting on key points with the Electorate. I'm tired of self-entitled candidates who feel "it's my turn" quashing everyone else.

[RJDiogenes]

^^ If you mean Biden, he practically had to be drafted.

The economy will definitely be a factor, because a large chunk of the population votes based on how they are doing financially. But it's not so much whether the economy is good overall, but whether those ten-thousand people in Wisconsin or wherever who voted for the Donald because he was going to use his brilliant business expertise to make their hand-to-mouth lives better are actually better off. And chances are they're not.

[Lupine]

One poll I saw has Biden beating Trump by one percentage point, but Trump beating everyone else by 1 or 2 percentage points. Really too close to call.